DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04066-w
论文题名: Using Dempster–Shafer theory to model earthquake events
作者: Mokarram M. ; Pourghasemi H.R. ; Tiefenbacher J.P.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 103, 期: 2 起始页码: 1943
结束页码: 1959
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Dempster–Shafer theory (DST)
; Earthquakes
; Fuzzy mapping
; Geographic information system (GIS)
; Spatial modeling
英文关键词: earthquake event
; GIS
; land surface
; seismic zone
; vulnerability
; Iran
; Kermanshah
英文摘要: In this study, Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) is integrated into a geographic information system to model vulnerability of the land surface to earthquake events in northwestern Kermanshah Province, Iran, to predict where damage is most likely to occur. DST has never been used to spatially model earthquake vulnerability. To achieve this, data layers for several environmental attributes—aspect, elevation, lithology, slope angle, land use, distance from river courses, distance from roads, and distance from faults—were compiled in ArcGIS 10.2.2 software. Using membership functions, fuzzy maps were generated for each parameter. These fuzzy maps provided input data for the DST model. The predicted values were analyzed and compared at three confidence levels to determine the effectiveness of the model. The results are that 11.14%, 14.14%, and 17.18% (95%, 99%, and 99.5% confidence levels, respectively) of the study area are predicted to be susceptible to earthquakes based on receiver operating characteristic curves. The results also show that, according to the area under the curve (AUC) values (0.967, 0.828, and 0.849 for 95%, 99%, and 99.5% confidence levels, respectively), DST model generates earthquake zoning maps with high accuracy. Therefore, this model can be used for generating earthquake zoning maps with confidence levels that best suit the economic conditions and significance of the region. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168639
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Range and Watershed Management, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources of Darab, Shiraz University, Darab, 71946-84471, Iran; Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran; Department of Geography, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mokarram M.,Pourghasemi H.R.,Tiefenbacher J.P.. Using Dempster–Shafer theory to model earthquake events[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,103(2)