DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04244-w
论文题名: Analysis of the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration in some climatological stations of Mexico from 1960 to 2010
作者: Núñez-González G.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 104, 期: 2 起始页码: 1747
结束页码: 1761
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Concentration index
; Entropy-based concentration index
; Precipitation
; Precipitation trend
; Seasonal precipitation
英文关键词: annual variation
; climatology
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; trend analysis
; Mexico [North America]
英文摘要: Analysis of precipitation trends as well as the observed trends in precipitation concentration can be useful tools for the identification of natural hazards. This study aimed to analyze the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration at the seasonal and annual levels in Mexico from 1960 to 2010. To do this, an entropy-based concentration index was used to calculate the concentration of precipitation at 44 climatological stations distributed throughout the country. The trend analysis was developed based on the Mann–Kendall test. There were fifteen significant precipitation trends at the annual level, and the numbers of positive and negative trends were nearly even. The interannual average of the concentration index ranged from 0.084 to 0.265, although extreme values of up to 0.56 were observed at the annual level and of up to 1 at the seasonal level. There were more positive trends than negative trends in the concentration index. The comparison of the trends of the precipitation and the concentration index showed an increase in precipitation at some stations with an associated decrease in the concentration index. On the other hand, decreases in precipitation at other stations were accompanied by increases in the concentration index. The first case did not seem to represent risk because the conditions suggested a more regular precipitation pattern. However, the second case could be considered a cautionary indicator, especially in the northern region, where it could signal the potential for drought. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168653
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Departamento de Ingenierías, Av. Independencia Nacional 151, Autlán de Navarro, Jalisco, Mexico
Recommended Citation:
Núñez-González G.. Analysis of the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration in some climatological stations of Mexico from 1960 to 2010[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,104(2)