DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03822-x
论文题名: Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa
作者: Ojara M.A. ; Lou Y. ; Aribo L. ; Namumbya S. ; Uddin M.J.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 100, 期: 2 起始页码: 493
结束页码: 514
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Agriculture
; Dry spells
; Lake Kyoga Basin
; Mann–Kendall
; Markov chain process
; Uganda
英文摘要: The economy of Uganda depends heavily on rainfed agriculture. In this study, daily observed rainfall datasets from 9 weather stations with length varying within 1955 and 2017 were used to generate the probability of rainfall and dry spells occurrence using a Markov chain approach. The length of the maximum dry spell was obtained using the direct method based on the definition of a dry day that rainfall is less than 0.85 mm (R < 0.85 mm) and the length of a dry spell is the sum of the number of dry days in a sequence. Mann–Kendall’s statistics (MK) was used to assess the trends in the length of maximum dry spells and Sen’s slope test to estimate the magnitude of change (Q2) in days/per month. MK test results show increasing trends in the length of the maximum dry spells in March at 5 stations, while an insignificant decrease in the length of maximum dry spells is revealed for remaining stations. For the month of April and May, the length of a maximum dry spell is observed to be decreasing across most stations although not statistically significant at the 5% significance level during their respective study periods. The probability of 8 days dry spell is high across all the stations (38–69%) in March, April, and August. This could strongly be related to the changing climate in the region. Negative impacts due to increased length of dry spells could be mitigated through well-timed planting of crops, use of irrigation, and growing of heat-/drought-tolerant crop varieties to match the changing weather and climate patterns. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168656
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Clement Hill Road, P.O. Box 7025, Kampala, Uganda
Recommended Citation:
Ojara M.A.,Lou Y.,Aribo L.,et al. Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,100(2)