DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04042-4
论文题名: A coupled wave, tide and storm surge operational forecasting system for South Africa: validation and physical description
作者: Rautenbach C. ; Daniels T. ; de Vos M. ; Barnes M.A.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 103, 期: 1 起始页码: 1407
结束页码: 1439
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Delft 3D
; Extreme events
; Mid-latitude cyclones
; Numerical modelling
; Operational forecasting
; South Africa
; Storm surge
; SWAN
; Waves
英文关键词: atmospheric forcing
; model validation
; numerical model
; ocean tide
; shoaling wave
; storm surge
; wave propagation
; weather forecasting
; South Africa
英文摘要: Regional storm tidal levels of the South African coastline are investigated by means of a calibrated and validated numerical model. The model was developed utilizing the shallow water hydrodynamic model, Delft3D. This model was coupled (online) with a non-stationary spectral wave model (developed in the Simulating WAves in the Nearshore (SWAN) numerical code). A local, 4.4 km version of the Unified Model was applied as atmospheric forcing for the coupled system. The models presented in this study form part of the operational marine forecasts of the South African Weather Service, Wave and Storm Surge model. The operational protocol and model calibration and validation are presented via statistical correlations with measured water levels at six South African coastal locations. The main calibration parameters and thus physical drivers were winds, atmospheric pressure and waves. The validated numerical model is used to provide an experimental physical description of South African storm surge characteristics, per coastline. The dominant driver of South African storm surge is winds associated with mid-latitude cyclones. Further novelty in the present study is the quantification of the relative contribution of extreme storm wave set-up to the South African storm surge signal. This wave set-up contributes approximately 20% of the total surge signal in the southwest, with winds contributing approximately 55%. The importance of the continental shelves is also elucidated concerning the frictional shoaling effects of the long surge wave propagation. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168692
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Marine Research Unit, South African Weather Service, Cape Town, South Africa; Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa; Department of Oceanography and Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Rautenbach C.,Daniels T.,de Vos M.,et al. A coupled wave, tide and storm surge operational forecasting system for South Africa: validation and physical description[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,103(1)