globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03839-2
论文题名:
Short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka using low-frequency magnetic fields
作者: Schekotov A.; Chebrov D.; Hayakawa M.; Belyaev G.; Berseneva N.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 100, 期:2
起始页码: 735
结束页码: 755
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Earthquake (EQ) prediction ; EQ preparation process ; Gas emanation ; Lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling ; Seismo-electromagnetic phenomena ; Subduction zone
英文摘要: This paper is devoted to a method of short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction in Kamchatka, Russia. Properties of low-frequency magnetic fields are the basics of the method, and we used two seismo-electromagnetic phenomena in the EQ prediction: 1. seismo-ionospheric depression in the frequency range of 0.01–0.1 Hz (ULF depression), 2. seismo-atmospheric radiation in the frequency range of 1–30 Hz (ULF/ELF radiation). It is now generally accepted that gas eruption before an EQ causes these ULF/ELF phenomena. We propose a hypothesis that gas emanates from the area in the bottom of Kuril–Kamchatka or Aleutian trenches closest to the epicenter of a forthcoming EQ. The three parameters of an EQ are (i) when (time), (ii) where (position) a next EQ is coming with (iii) how big (magnitude) in the short-term EQ prediction. Position of the source of atmospheric radiation gives an estimate of the epicenter location. Then, we estimate the local magnitude in consequence of its statistical dependence on ULF depression and epicenter distance. Date of a coming EQ is determined by the statistical dependence of delays of EQs relative to the dates of their precursors. The result of application of this method to real magnetic field data is illustrated by official prediction processes during a period of March–May 2016. Limits and possible errors of the method as well as methods to enhance the reliability of the prediction are discussed. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168726
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: The Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IPE RAS), 10-1 B. Gruzinskaya, Moscow, 123242, Russian Federation; Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences, KB GS RAS, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski, Russian Federation; Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electromagnetics, Co. Ltd. (Hi-SEM), UEC (University of Electro-Communications), Alliance Center #521, 1-1-1 Kojima-cho, Chofu, Tokyo 182-0026, Japan; Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center (AWCC), UEC, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu, Tokyo 182-8585, Japan; Pushkov Institute of Terrestial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radiowave Propagation (IZMIRAN), RAS, Troitsk, Kaluzhskoe Hwy 4, Moscow, 108840, Russian Federation; Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1-2 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation

Recommended Citation:
Schekotov A.,Chebrov D.,Hayakawa M.,et al. Short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka using low-frequency magnetic fields[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,100(2)
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