DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04265-5
论文题名: Regional landslide hazard assessment through integrating susceptibility index and rainfall process
作者: Wang Z. ; Wang D. ; Guo Q. ; Wang D.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 104, 期: 3 起始页码: 2153
结束页码: 2173
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Hazard assessment
; Landslides
; Logistic regression
; Susceptibility influence
英文关键词: accuracy assessment
; early warning system
; environmental factor
; hazard assessment
; landslide
; precipitation intensity
; prediction
; rainfall
; regional geology
; spatial distribution
; temporal distribution
; China
; Sichuan
英文摘要: Due to the difference of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and the complex diversity of the disaster-prone environment (topography, geological, fault, and lithology), it is difficult to assess the hazard of landslides at the regional scale quantitatively only considering rainfall condition. Based on detailed landslide inventory and rainfall data in the hilly area in Sichuan province, this study analyzed the effects of both rainfall process and environmental factors on the occurrence of landslides. Through analyzing environmental factors, a landslide susceptibility index (LSI) was calculated using multiple layer perceptron (MLP) model to reflect the regional landslide susceptibility. Further, the characteristics of rainfall process and landslides were examined quantitatively with statistical analysis. Finally, a probability model integrating LSI and rainfall process was constructed using logistical regression analysis to assess the landslide hazard. Validation showed satisfactory results, and the inclusion of LSI effectively improved the accuracy of the landslide hazard assessment: Compared with only considering the rainfall process factors, the accuracy of the landslide prediction model both considering the rainfall process and landslide susceptibility is improved by 3%. These results indicate that an integration of susceptibility index and rainfall process is essential in improving the timeliness and accuracy of regional landslide early warning. © 2020, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168793
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Tianjin Key Laboratory of Soft Soil Characteristics and Engineering Environment, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin, 300384, China; School of Geology and Geomatics, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin, 300384, China; Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong999077, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation:
Wang Z.,Wang D.,Guo Q.,et al. Regional landslide hazard assessment through integrating susceptibility index and rainfall process[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,104(3)