DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04226-y
论文题名: Tsunami risk assessment: economic, environmental and social dimensions
作者: Yavuz C. ; Kentel E. ; Aral M.M.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 104, 期: 2 起始页码: 1413
结束页码: 1442
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Geographic information systems (GIS)
; Monte Carlo analysis
; Risk assessment
; Tsunami modeling
英文关键词: coastal zone management
; earthquake event
; GIS
; Monte Carlo analysis
; risk assessment
; tsunami event
; wave propagation
; Egypt
; Mediterranean Coast [Egypt]
英文摘要: In this study, we present a novel methodology that may be used to analyze tsunami risk along coastal regions. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the Eastern Mediterranean coast. Economic, social and environmental dimensions of risk are calculated and aggregated to obtain the overall risk maps for a number of elements at risk (EaR) that are identified from seven countries located along the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. Historical earthquakes that are recorded in the region during the period 1900–2013 are used as data, and probabilistic tsunami modeling is carried out using Monte Carlo analysis. Based on historical data, randomly generated earthquakes are simulated, and wave propagation analysis is performed using NAMI-DANCE software. Inundation depth–damage analysis and exceedance probabilities of tsunami inundations are used to evaluate social and economic risks while the environmental risk is calculated using a binary approach. The overall risk map is constructed in the geographic information system environment. Cairo Agricultural Area in Egypt and Fethiye City in Turkey are identified as high-risk EaR in the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. The new risk assessment methodology may be utilized in coastal regions of the world, and the results obtained for the Eastern Mediterranean may be effectively used in developing preventive measures and disaster management strategies for tsunamis that may develop the region. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168824
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Sirnak University, Sirnak, 73000, Turkey; Department of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, 06800, Turkey; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yavuz C.,Kentel E.,Aral M.M.. Tsunami risk assessment: economic, environmental and social dimensions[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,104(2)