DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03959-0
论文题名: Mortality during Hurricane Sandy: the effects of waterfront flood protection on Staten Island, New York
作者: Zhang F. ; Orton P.M. ; Madajewicz M. ; Jagupilla S.C.K. ; Bakhtyar R.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 103, 期: 1 起始页码: 57
结束页码: 85
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Flood risk
; Hard defense
; Hurricane Sandy
; Hydrodynamic modeling
; Mortality
; Overtopping
英文关键词: berm
; coastal protection
; extreme event
; flood control
; flood damage
; Hurricane Sandy 2012
; hydrodynamics
; mortality
; probability
; risk assessment
; storm damage
; water level
; New York [New York (STT)]
; New York [United States]
; Staten Island [New York]
; United States
英文摘要: Hard defenses, such as levees or land berms, are often considered the most effective approach to reduce flood risk. This study reveals a potential increase in mortality when hard protections cannot defend a location against low-probability, extreme flood events. Staten Island, New York, suffered devastating damage from Hurricane Sandy, including 23 fatalities, of which 18 occurred in the neighborhoods along the island’s eastern shore. This study demonstrates that the elevated berm along the eastern shore may have contributed to the concentration of fatalities in the area by increasing the speed at which seawater rose, causing some people to be trapped in places where they could not escape rising waters. The study uses a hydrodynamic model to simulate Hurricane Sandy flood conditions, providing water depth, rise rate, and velocity. Statistical analyses show that water rise rate influences mortality, while other flood characteristics and several demographic and socioeconomic factors do not. A model experiment that qualitatively examines flood conditions in the presence of a lower discontinuous berm that historically existed at the location in Midland Beach finds that the increased height and continuity of the berm increased probability of mortality by worsening the water rise rate during Sandy by about 50%. The potential increase in mortality needs to be taken into account when designing coastal protections. If a protection strategy does not prevent low-probability, extreme floods, then there is a trade-off between protection against more frequent floods and increased risk of mortality during extreme floods. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168838
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department Civil, Environmental and Ocean Engineering, Stevens Institute of Technology, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030, United States; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, United States; Office of Water Prediction - Analysis and Prediction Division, NOAA National Water Center, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhang F.,Orton P.M.,Madajewicz M.,et al. Mortality during Hurricane Sandy: the effects of waterfront flood protection on Staten Island, New York[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,103(1)