DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03889-x
论文题名: Characteristics of extreme precipitation and runoff in the Xijiang River Basin at global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
作者: Zhao Y. ; Li Z. ; Cai S. ; Wang H.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 101, 期: 3 起始页码: 669
结束页码: 688
语种: 英语
中文关键词: CMIP5
; Extreme precipitation
; Global warming
; Runoff
; Xijiang River Basin
英文关键词: baseline conditions
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; global warming
; precipitation intensity
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; river basin
; runoff
; China
; Jiangxi
; Xin River
英文摘要: Ten models of NEX-GDDP CMIP5 were used to perform equal-weighted averaging under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios to obtain daily precipitation and temperature data under a multi-model ensemble. The CREST and VIC models were used to project the change characteristics of runoff and precipitation in the Xijiang River Basin under the background of a global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively. The results show that: (1) under the two warming target scenarios, there are obvious regional differences in the extreme precipitation in the Xijiang River Basin under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The precipitation increases on the whole and more so under the high-emission and greater-warming scenarios. In addition, extreme precipitation events in the Xijiang River Basin are significantly different at a temperature rise of additional 0.5 °C. (2) CREST and VIC have good feasibility in the Xijiang River Basin. The projected runoff increases under different combinations of scenarios and at various time scales compared to the baseline period. (3) There is no significant difference between the multi-annual average monthly runoff distribution percentage calculated by the multi-model and hydrological model ensemble average and the multi-annual average monthly runoff distribution percentage during the baseline period and the distributions under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are more uniform and uneven, respectively, than that in the baseline period. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168851
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China; China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100044, China; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhao Y.,Li Z.,Cai S.,et al. Characteristics of extreme precipitation and runoff in the Xijiang River Basin at global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,101(3)