DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04384-z
论文题名: A near-fault probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Yasouj, located in the Kazerun fault system, southwest Iran
作者: Eftekhari S.N. ; Sayyadpour H. ; Kowsari M.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 105, 期: 2 起始页码: 1945
结束页码: 1961
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Kazerun fault system
; Near fault
; Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
; Zagros
英文关键词: decision making
; earthquake event
; fault zone
; ground motion
; hazard assessment
; probability
; seismic design
; seismic hazard
; seismic source
; Fars
; Iran
; Kazerun
英文摘要: The Kazerun fault system (KFS) is located in the central part of the Zagros, the most seismically active orogenic belt in the Iranian plateau. The city of Yasouj is located in the midst of the KFS and thus exposed to high earthquake hazard. In this study, we conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which includes near-fault effects. For this purpose, different ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are ranked using the deviance information criterion (DIC) data-driven method against a dataset of the regional recorded strong motions. Then, the most appropriate GMPEs are selected for use in a logic tree framework to consider the epistemic uncertainty. In addition, the shear wave velocity is estimated using experimental data and the local site conditions are evaluated for different parts of the city. In addition, the seismicity parameters are obtained using the maximum likelihood methodology considering the magnitude uncertainty. The results show large variations in the spectral accelerations among different locations at short oscillator periods, while no significant difference is observed at longer periods. Moreover, due to the local site conditions, the highest ground motions are expected in the northeastern part of the Yasouj city. Comparing the results of this study with the Iranian seismic code design spectra shows that the design spectra of the Iranian seismic code are underestimating the ground motions at short spectral periods. The results of this study can be useful for both engineers and decision-makers to reduce earthquake risk for the region under study. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169003
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Faculty of Technology and Mining, Yasouj University, Choram, 75761-59836, Iran; Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland; Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, Selfoss, Iceland
Recommended Citation:
Eftekhari S.N.,Sayyadpour H.,Kowsari M.. A near-fault probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Yasouj, located in the Kazerun fault system, southwest Iran[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,105(2)