DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04576-1
论文题名: Assessing the impact of geo-targeted warning messages on residents’ evacuation decisions before a hurricane using agent-based modeling
作者: Gao S. ; Wang Y.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 107, 期: 1 起始页码: 123
结束页码: 146
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Agent-based modeling
; Decision-making
; Evacuation
; Geo-targeted warning
; Hurricane
英文关键词: assessment method
; decision making
; environmental factor
; hazard assessment
; hurricane event
; natural hazard
; warning system
英文摘要: The increasing frequency and intensity of hurricane hazards have raised the urgency of improving hurricane warning effectiveness, especially in terms of motivating the evacuation of people living in high-risk areas. Traditional warnings for hurricanes have limitations of sending a general message for coarse spatial scales (e.g., county level) and do not include specific risks and orders for residents in distinct areas of finer scales. To overcome these limitations, geo-targeted hurricane warning systems have been proposed, but in practice, the existing systems have low accuracy because they neglect environmental factors when defining warning zones. Extant literature has focused on optimizing the geo-delivering process of warnings with limited efforts on geo-defining warning zones. It is still unclear to what extent the geo-targeted warnings motivate residents to evacuate from high-risk areas before a hurricane. Therefore, we developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate residents’ evacuation decision-making under geo-targeted warnings, which were generated based on characteristics of both hurricane hazards and the built environment. We used forecasted information of Hurricane Dorian as a case study; then conducted the ABMs under geo-targeted warnings, a general warning, and warnings based on storm surge planning zones; then we compared the three outcomes. The research finds an effective way to geo-define warning zones using the built environment data. The result suggests that geo-targeted warnings can motivate more residents in high-risk areas to evacuate. These findings contribute to the understanding of the effect of geo-targeted warning on evacuation and suggest the importance of warnings with more specific contents for finer spatial scales. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169027
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, College of Design, Construction and Planning, Florida Institute for Built Environment Resilience, University of Florida, 1480 Inner Road, Gainesville, FL 32601, United States; Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Florida Institute for Built Environment Resilience, University of Florida, 115706, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States
Recommended Citation:
Gao S.,Wang Y.. Assessing the impact of geo-targeted warning messages on residents’ evacuation decisions before a hurricane using agent-based modeling[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,107(1)