DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04748-z
论文题名: Seismic risk management through insurance and its sensitivity to uncertainty in the hazard model
作者: Gkimprixis A. ; Douglas J. ; Tubaldi E.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 108, 期: 2 起始页码: 1629
结束页码: 1657
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Earthquake insurance premium
; Financial loss
; Hazard uncertainty
; Reinforced concrete buildings
; Seismic risk management
; Uniform hazard
英文关键词: building
; concrete structure
; earthquake
; finance
; hazard assessment
; insurance system
; reinforced concrete
; risk assessment
; seismicity
; uncertainty analysis
; Europe
英文摘要: Acknowledging the devastating consequences of past earthquakes, current research efforts focus on the development of tools for assessing and controlling the risk and losses associated with future earthquakes, in addition to trying to minimize construction costs. Apart from providing a control of these levels, earthquake engineering can also provide solutions to manage the financial implications of the expected hazardous events. The first part of this article focuses on the management of the expected losses through the mechanism of transfer of the financial risk via earthquake insurance. Various insurance models are explained and applied in different case studies, and numerous analyses are performed across Europe, for a benchmark four-storey reinforced-concrete frame building. The results highlight significant variation in the premiums with seismicity, design practices and properties of the insurance model. It is crucial that any mitigation or transfer framework should use probabilistic methods to consider the uncertainties inherent in the hazard and structural response estimates. For example, different studies for the same region often indicate considerable differences in seismic hazard estimates. The uncertainty inherent in the hazard input model is transferred to and affects the results of the structural design and the performance assessment. Thus, the second part of the article investigates the impact of the epistemic uncertainty in the hazard model on the structural design and consequently the estimated future losses and risk levels, again for the benchmark building. First, a comparison is performed between the hazard data from two studies for different locations in Italy, in order to assess the possible range of variation in estimated hazard levels amongst different studies. The effects of these hazard variations on the seismic design and risk and loss metrics for the benchmark building are also investigated for these locations. Finally, a simplified approach for modelling hazard uncertainty is introduced and various sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the effects of the hazard uncertainty across Europe. It is shown that hazard uncertainty can be of differing importance for the various involved stakeholders. © 2021, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169038
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Gkimprixis A.,Douglas J.,Tubaldi E.. Seismic risk management through insurance and its sensitivity to uncertainty in the hazard model[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,108(2)