DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04751-4
论文题名: Economic value of tropical cyclone conditions of readiness
作者: Gulati S. ; Sampson C.R.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 108, 期: 2 起始页码: 1687
结束页码: 1700
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Cost-loss model
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone conditions of readiness
; Tropical cyclone forecast
英文摘要: U. S. Military bases are especially vulnerable to tropical cyclones (TCs) because they concentrate extremely expensive equipment in a small area. A TC hit at a base can result in upwards of 2 billion dollars in damage, as demonstrated by the recent loss of F-22 aircraft at Tyndall Air Base during Hurricane Michael. To mitigate these events, the Department of Defense defines tropical cyclone conditions of readiness (TCCOR), a set of preparedness levels that are adhered to by bases in preparation of an approaching TC. TCCOR are set by base commanders and are dependent on the likelihood of 50-knot sustained winds impacting the base within a forecast time. These TC-CORs generally drop from V (generally seasonal preparedness) to IV (50 kt or higher winds possible within 72 h); III (50 kt or higher winds possible within 48 h), II (50 kt or higher winds expected within 24 h), and I (50 kt or higher winds expected in 12 h or occurring now). Each TCCOR is associated with a specific set of preparedness actions whose cost generally increases as the TCCOR level drops. As preparing a base for a specific TCCOR level can be extremely time consuming and expensive, it is important that we assess the economic value of the preparation. In this work, we develop a simple cost-loss/savings model to estimate and compare the economic value of skillful TC forecasting against a no-skill forecast baseline. The cost-loss/savings model developed demonstrates that skilled forecasts offer considerable savings over non-skilled forecasts. The algorithm has been implemented in an Excel spreadsheet so that it can be customized to specific bases of interest. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169051
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, United States; Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 93943, United States
Recommended Citation:
Gulati S.,Sampson C.R.. Economic value of tropical cyclone conditions of readiness[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,108(2)