DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04585-0
论文题名: Prediction model based on the Laplacian eigenmap method combined with a random forest algorithm for rainstorm satellite images during the first annual rainy season in South China
作者: Huang X.-Y. ; He L. ; Zhao H.-S. ; Huang Y. ; Wu Y.-S.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 107, 期: 1 起始页码: 331
结束页码: 353
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Heavy rainfall
; Laplacian eigenmaps
; Multiple linear regression
; Random forest algorithm
; Satellite cloud images
英文关键词: algorithm
; eigenvalue
; image processing
; numerical model
; prediction
; rainfall
; rainstorm
; regression analysis
; satellite imagery
; China
英文摘要: The recent emergence of satellite detection and imaging technologies has increased the demand for the application of satellite cloud images to current weather forecasting. However, approaches based on nonlinear prediction technology to forecast satellite images are lacking, and forecasting timelines are relatively short, e.g., 1–3 h in advance. In the present study, a nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach based on Laplacian eigenmaps (LEs) was combined with a random forest (RF) algorithm to construct an intelligent computing prediction model for rainstorm satellite images obtained from the first annual rainy season (April–June) in South China from 2010 to 2018. Results showed that the proposed forecasting model based on nonlinear intelligent calculation can accurately predict the key features and trends of the development and movement of strong precipitation clouds. The predicted satellite images described by the model were also consistent with the major features of the observed satellite images. This study then used a multiple linear regression (MLR) method based on the same prediction factors to establish a model for predicting satellite images for the same modeling and forecasting samples. Comparative results of the two prediction schemes showed that the LE + RF algorithm satellite image prediction scheme yields more samples exhibiting a high correlation with observed satellite images than the MLR method. Compared with that of the proposed scheme, the amount of samples of the MLR scheme in the low-correlation area was significantly larger. In general, the nonlinear intelligent computing scheme developed in this study is superior to the MLR method for predicting satellite cloud images. Thus, the LE + RF algorithm satellite image prediction scheme provides an objective and practical method for observed satellite cloud image predictions. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169084
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Guangxi Research Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Nanning, China
Recommended Citation:
Huang X.-Y.,He L.,Zhao H.-S.,et al. Prediction model based on the Laplacian eigenmap method combined with a random forest algorithm for rainstorm satellite images during the first annual rainy season in South China[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,107(1)