DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04385-y
论文题名: Multi-hazard climate risk projections for the United States
作者: Kc B. ; Shepherd J.M. ; King A.W. ; Johnson Gaither C.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 105, 期: 2 起始页码: 1963
结束页码: 1976
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Climate risk
; Exposure
; Hazards
; Projection
; Sea level rise
; Vulnerability
英文关键词: climate effect
; future prospect
; hazard assessment
; hazard management
; natural hazard
; risk factor
; sea level change
; vulnerability
; United States
; Alabama
; Florida
英文摘要: Climate risk is a consequence of climate hazards, exposure, and the vulnerability (IPCC 2014). Here, we assess future (2040–2049) climate risk for the entire contiguous US at the county level with a novel climate risk index integrating multiple hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities. Future, weather and climate hazards are characterized as frequency of heat wave, cold spells, dryer, and heavy precipitation events along with anomalies of temperature and precipitation using high resolution (4 km) downscaled climate projections. Exposure is characterized by projections of population, infrastructure, and built surfaces prone to multiple hazards including sea level rise and storm surges. Vulnerability is characterized by projections of demographic groups most sensitive to climate hazards. We found Florida, California, the central Gulf Coast, and North Atlantic at high climate risk in the future. However, the contributions to this risk vary regionally. Florida is projected to be equally hard hit by the three components of climate risk. The coastal counties in the Gulf states of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama are at high climate risk due to high exposure and hazard. High exposure and vulnerability drive high climate risk in California counties. This approach can guide planners in targeting counties at most risk and where adaptation strategies to reduce exposure or protect vulnerable populations might be best applied. © 2020, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169121
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, United States; Department of Geography, The University of Georgia, 210 Field Street, Athens, GA 30602, United States; USDA Forest Service, 320 Green Street, Athens, GA 30602-2044, United States; ADNET Systems Inc/ NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 610.2 Blg 32, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kc B.,Shepherd J.M.,King A.W.,et al. Multi-hazard climate risk projections for the United States[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,105(2)