DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04776-9
论文题名: Impact of droughts on child mortality: a case study in Southern African countries
作者: Khan M.Z.K. ; Rahman A. ; Rahman M.A. ; Renzaho A.M.N.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 108, 期: 2 起始页码: 2211
结束页码: 2224
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Child mortality
; Drought
; GDP
; Generalized Additive Model
; Literacy rate
; Southern Africa
; Standard Precipitation Index
英文关键词: Namibia
英文摘要: Natural hazards like floods and droughts affect many aspects of life. The study in particular examined the impacts of droughts on under-five mortality rate in Southern Africa, adjusting for gross domestic product (GDP) and literacy rate. Despite drought and child mortality being key public health concerns in Southern Africa over the past few decades, there have hardly been any studies examining the relationships between them. The study used publicly available data from 1980 to 2012. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-monthly time scales for ten southern African countries. The wetter and drier states are represented by positive and negative SPI values, respectively. SPI, GDP, and literacy rate were considered for predicting child mortality rate using both Multiple Linear Regression techniques and nonlinear methods (Generalized Additive Model), on a leave-one-year-out cross validation approach for model evaluation. Child mortality increased as the drought worsened for five countries in this region, namely Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, and Zambia. We found that child mortality can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy using three predictor variables—drought index, GDP and literacy rate. Statistical modelling based on early warning system can complement regional capacities for drought response systems to increase child survival rate in drought-prone areas © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169126
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, Design and Built Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia; Translational Health Research Institute, School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Campbelltown, NSW 2560, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Khan M.Z.K.,Rahman A.,Rahman M.A.,et al. Impact of droughts on child mortality: a case study in Southern African countries[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,108(2)