DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04820-8
论文题名: Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of seismic risk resulting from multiple hazard models
作者: Marulanda M.C. ; de la Llera J.C. ; Bernal G.A. ; Cardona O.D.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 108, 期: 3 起始页码: 3203
结束页码: 3227
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Hazard models
; Loss exceedance curves
; Probabilistic risk assessment
; Risk model blending
; Uncertainty quantification
英文关键词: catastrophic event
; hazard assessment
; probability
; quantitative analysis
; risk assessment
; seismicity
; Chile
英文摘要: Quite frequently, catastrophes impact populated areas of the world, and hence the need for proper risk evaluations that support mitigation and management processes. Because of the uncertain nature of extreme natural hazards and lack of data, forecasts of the potential damage and losses before the event happens are needed. Catastrophe (CAT) models build on scenarios that represent all possible realizations of the hazard in terms of recurrence and intensity. Probabilistic risk models require the characterization of the hazards, the exposure model for the infrastructure, and its vulnerability. The main objective of this research is to compare loss exceedance curves, probable maximum loss curves, and average annual losses using four different available seismic hazard models for Chile. To isolate the effect of changing the hazard model in the risk results, the exposure and vulnerability information is fixed to the one available from the Global Assessment Report, GAR 15, and GAR ATLAS 2017. Imprecise probability theory, logic trees, and frequency and severity blends used by CAT modelers are the approaches applied and compared herein to propose either model blending or an interval of possible realizations. Both types of results have pros and cons. Blended results are point estimates which make them useful in a more traditional way, but their computation necessarily implies assigning weights to the models according to the modeler preferences. On the other hand, raw intervals of variability (without any knowledge of how the variable is distributed inside) are more transparent, as they simply state the bound of what is known without any preference, but their use is less understood among practitioners and could be even impractical. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169214
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: CIGIDEN, National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Santiago, Chile; Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil and Agricultural Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia; Institute of Environment Studies, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales, Colombia
Recommended Citation:
Marulanda M.C.,de la Llera J.C.,Bernal G.A.,et al. Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of seismic risk resulting from multiple hazard models[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,108(3)