DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04760-3
论文题名: Increased motor vehicle crashes following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan: an interrupted time series analysis of property damage crashes
作者: Maruyama T. ; Taguchi K.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 108, 期: 2 起始页码: 1877
结束页码: 1899
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Earthquake disaster
; Motor vehicle crashes resulting in property damage
; Negative binomial regression model
; Poisson regression model
; Time series count data model
英文摘要: Driving after natural disasters entails a substantial amount of stress; therefore, the number of motor vehicle crashes may increase. However, few studies have examined this issue. This study investigated motor vehicle crashes after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan. Monthly data about crashes resulting in property damage from 49 municipalities in Kumamoto from 2015 to 2018 were used. An interrupted time series analysis using Poisson or negative binomial regression models was conducted for 49 municipalities; the models were estimated for four classified areas to obtain the robust results. We found that property damage crashes increased significantly in the heavily affected area (Relative Risk (RR) = 1.48, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.29, 1.71) and the affected area (RR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.36) after the earthquake. A mountainous area showed a reduction in property damage crashes despite its heavy damage (RR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.67, 0.82), which can be attributed to the closure of its main gate routes. The unaffected area showed no difference before and after the earthquake. Geographical presentation of the result demonstrates a clear positive association of earthquake damage and increased crashes. The findings of this study highlight the importance of motor-vehicle-crash alerts after an earthquake. © 2021, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169215
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Center for Water Resource, Marine Environment, and Disaster Management, Kumamoto University, 2-39-1 Kurokami, Kumamoto, 860-8555, Japan; Department of Civil Engineering, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Maruyama T.,Taguchi K.. Increased motor vehicle crashes following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan: an interrupted time series analysis of property damage crashes[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,108(2)