DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04682-0
论文题名: A synoptic view of the natural time distribution and contemporary earthquake hazards in Sumatra, Indonesia
作者: Pasari S. ; Simanjuntak A.V.H. ; Mehta A. ; Neha ; Sharma Y.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 108, 期: 1 起始页码: 309
结束页码: 321
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Earthquake nowcasting
; Probability models
; Seismic hazard
; Sumatra
英文摘要: Tectonic plate interactions in Sumatra have caused a range of devastating earthquake events. In this study, we develop an analytical framework, known as earthquake nowcasting (Rundle et al. in Earth and Space Science 3:480–486, 2016. 10.1002/2016EA000185), to assess the current dynamical state of earthquake hazards in Sumatra and adjacent islands from the empirical distribution of natural times, the cumulative counts of “small” events (say, M ≥ 4) between two successive “large” earthquakes (say, M ≥ 6.5). Based on 50 years of instrumental earthquake data, the best fit Weibull distribution assigns earthquake potential score between 29 and 96% to 19 large cities in the study region with the values (%) of Aceh (72), Bengkulu (34), Binjai (81), Jambi (35), Lahat (29), Lampung (45), Lhoksuemawe (54), Medan (75), Mentawai (76), Meulaboh (71), Nias (95), Palembang (80), Padang (74), Pekanbaru (39), Sabang (72), Siantar (82), Sibolga (92), Sinabang (96), and Tanjung Balai (55). These areal-source based nowcast scores, analogous to the tectonic stress buildup since the last major event, essentially provides a unique characterization of the current level of seismic progression of a city through its repetitive cycle of regional earthquakes. Inclusion of dependent events with aftershocks being more common and the concept of natural times are some of the distinctive advantages of the proposed method. The resulting natural time statistics and consequent earthquake potential scores will facilitate seismic risk estimation, multistate decision-making, and community awareness, leading to an efficient seismic risk reduction strategy in the densely populated study region. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169285
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani, Pilani Campus, Jhunjhunu, Rajasthan 333031, India; Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Banda Aceh City, Aceh 23111, Indonesia; Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Infrastructure Technology and Management, Ahmedabad, Gujarat 380026, India
Recommended Citation:
Pasari S.,Simanjuntak A.V.H.,Mehta A.,et al. A synoptic view of the natural time distribution and contemporary earthquake hazards in Sumatra, Indonesia[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,108(1)