DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04640-w
论文题名: Interoccurrence times and seismic hazard for upper-crustal volcanic chain earthquakes in El Salvador: are they Poissonian distributed?
作者: Salazar W.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 107, 期: 2 起始页码: 1443
结束页码: 1465
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Conditional probability
; Cumulative probability distribution
; Elapsed time
; Response spectra
英文摘要: We study the statistical properties of time intervals between successive earthquakes for a given magnitude in the El Salvador volcanic chain, namely hereafter the interoccurrence times employing both the cumulative Poisson and the Weibull probability distributions. The dataset comprises magnitudes between M 4.0 and 6.93 within the years 1528–2018. We suggest that ITs pose the Weibull distribution for all events and that the Poisson distribution co-exists for ITs longer than the Weibull mean. Based on the probabilities distribution fit, we compute for engineering purposes ground motion and elastic response spectra for 5% damping employing time-dependent and independent seismic hazard models at San Salvador city, observing covariance of less than 7% amongst the models. The disaggregation analysis suggests that a magnitude 6.3 contributes most to the hazard and coincides with the magnitude bin of 6.25–6.50, which has the maximum conditional probability in the time-dependent model. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169336
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Catholic University of El Salvador, UNICAES, Santa Ana, El Salvador
Recommended Citation:
Salazar W.. Interoccurrence times and seismic hazard for upper-crustal volcanic chain earthquakes in El Salvador: are they Poissonian distributed?[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,107(2)