DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04733-6
论文题名: Modeling wildfire drivers in Chinese tropical forest ecosystems using global logistic regression and geographically weighted logistic regression
作者: Su Z. ; Zheng L. ; Luo S. ; Tigabu M. ; Guo F.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 108, 期: 1 起始页码: 1317
结束页码: 1345
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Fire prevention
; Spatial fire distribution
; Tropical ecosystem
; Wildfire drivers
英文摘要: The tropics is an area with high incidence of wildfire all over the world in recent years, and the forest ecosystem in the tropics is extremely fragile. Thus, it is very important to identify drivers of wildfire in the tropics for developing effective fire management strategy. In this paper, global logistic regression (GLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWLR) models were employed to analyze the spatial distribution and drivers of tropical wildfires in Xishuangbanna and Leizhou Peninsula in tropical China from 2001 to 2018. The results show that the overall distribution of wildfire in Xishuangbanna and Leizhou Peninsula from 2001 to 2018 was spatially aggregated. In these tropical seasonal forest ecosystems, wildfire was mainly driven by meteorological factors, particularly by daily temperature range and precipitation. In Xishuangbanna (inland) peninsula, the impact of driving factors tended to be global, and the GLR model predicted the probability of wildfire occurrence better than the GWLR model. Drivers of wildfire in Leizhou Peninsula (coastal area) had clear spatial variation, and the GWLR model better explained the relationship. Furthermore, wildfire in Leizhou was more driven by human activities, especially management of agricultural lands. Our results demonstrate that effective forest management practice needs to adopt fire management practices with regional characteristics. The forest management strategy and traditional agriculture production system should pay more attention to changes in these driving factors and their relationship with wildfire. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169381
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Zhangzhou Institute of Technology, Zhangzhou, 363000, China; College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, 350002, China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Silviculture, Protection and Utilization, Guangdong Academy of Forestry, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510520, China
Recommended Citation:
Su Z.,Zheng L.,Luo S.,et al. Modeling wildfire drivers in Chinese tropical forest ecosystems using global logistic regression and geographically weighted logistic regression[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,108(1)