| DOI: | 10.1007/s11069-020-04450-6
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| 论文题名: | Meteotsunami model forecast: can coastal hazard be quantified in real time? |
| 作者: | Titov V.; Moore C.
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| 刊名: | Natural Hazards
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| ISSN: | 0921030X
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| 出版年: | 2021
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| 卷: | 106, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 1545
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| 结束页码: | 1561
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文关键词: | Forecast
; Meteotsunami
; Numerical model
; Real-time data
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| 英文关键词: | early warning system
; forecasting method
; natural hazard
; numerical model
; real time
; time series analysis
; tsunami
; Atlantic Coast [North America]
; Atlantic Coast [United States]
; United States
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| 英文摘要: | A modeling study has been conducted to simulate the June 13, 2013 U.S. East Coast meteotsunami event as a test of the model forecast concept. A numerical simulation based on the MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami) model was employed for the meteotsunami propagation forecast, while the weather radar reflection imagery was used to simulate real-time input data for the atmospheric pressure-induced tsunami generation. The model tsunami was generated by a moving pressure field during 2.87 h of forcing, and the resultant tsunami was then simulated for additional 5.68 h of propagation without any forcing for a total of 8.55 h of meteotsunami evolution from generation to coastal impact. Simulated time series were compared with the measurements from sea-level coastal gages and the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting for Tsunami (DART) data. The model is able to reproduce in general the recorded sea-level changes in the deep ocean and at the coast in terms of arrival times and amplitudes. The model was able to predict coastal tsunami impacts that occurred from one to two hours after the model data assimilation phase ended. Therefore, this approach shows promise for developing meteotsunami model forecast capability based on measurements and data assimilation in real time, at least for meteotsunamis generated by fast-moving weather systems visible on radar reflection imagery. All the data used in this study are already available in real time, the MOST model is already implemented as a seismically generated tsunami forecast model at the Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs), which makes transition of potential meteotsunami forecast capability to warning operations straightforward. © 2021, This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169407
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Titov V.,Moore C.. Meteotsunami model forecast: can coastal hazard be quantified in real time?[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,106(2)
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