globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04645-5
论文题名:
Selecting and correcting RCM models ensemble: a case study for the evaluation of thermal discomfort for the city of Prato
作者: Villani V.; Romano E.; Barbato G.; Mercogliano P.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 107, 期:2
起始页码: 1541
结束页码: 1557
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Bias correction ; Climate changes ; High-resolution climate projections ; Impact studies ; Multi-criteria approach ; Multi-model ensemble ; Thermal discomfort
英文关键词: climate change ; climate modeling ; ensemble forecasting ; error correction ; high temperature ; humidity ; multicriteria analysis ; performance assessment ; regional climate ; sampling bias ; temperature effect ; uncertainty analysis ; weather forecasting ; Italy ; Prato [Prato (PRV)] ; Prato [Tuscany] ; Tuscany
英文摘要: In this work we propose an approach for selecting a subset of regional climate models that have a reasonable skill in simulating the past climate and represent changes in average and extreme climatic conditions well. After that, it is carried out a post-processing of the selected models based on quantile mapping correction. The selection of a subset of climate models is a crucial step when conducting climate change impact studies. Performaces of the proposed approach have been evaluated considering as a case study the evaluation of thermal discomfort for the city of Prato located in Italy. The climatic parameter adopted for the evaluation of the thermal discomfort due to high temperatures is the humidex index. For this specific test case, the approach defined and used to select an appropriate subset of EURO-CORDEX climate models to evaluate changes in the trend of humidex index and the related uncertainty, proved to be valid. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169431
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作者单位: REgional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts (REMHI) Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Caserta, 8100, Italy; Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Universitá degli Studi della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Caserta, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Villani V.,Romano E.,Barbato G.,et al. Selecting and correcting RCM models ensemble: a case study for the evaluation of thermal discomfort for the city of Prato[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,107(2)
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