DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04452-4
论文题名: Susceptibility assessment for rainfall-induced landslides using a revised logistic regression method
作者: Xing X. ; Wu C. ; Li J. ; Li X. ; Zhang L. ; He R.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 106, 期: 1 起始页码: 97
结束页码: 117
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Landslide susceptibility
; Logistic regression method
; Natural disaster
; Rainfall-induced landslide
英文关键词: assessment method
; hazard assessment
; induced response
; landslide
; precipitation intensity
; prediction
; probability
; regression analysis
; China
; Guangdong
; Shenzhen
英文摘要: Landslide susceptibility is the likelihood of a landslide occurring in an area. The logistic regression (LR) method is one of the most popular methods for landslide susceptibility assessment. For rainfall-induced landslides, yearly or monthly rainfall is commonly used to establish a landslide susceptibility model by the LR method. It is a static susceptibility model, which limits the application to predict future landslide probability under potential rainfall event. This study presents a revised logistic regression method to achieve dynamic landslide susceptibility prediction under cumulative daily rainfall. Five kinds of cumulative daily rainfall are used in the landslide susceptibility assessment. The latest landslide events are used to update the landslide susceptibility model. The receiver operation characteristic curve and area under curve are utilized to evaluate the prediction reliability. The landslide susceptibility assessment in Shenzhen is taken as an illustration of the proposed method. The result indicates the method is capable to achieve a high accuracy of 91.9% when the landslide susceptibility model is updated using seven extreme rainfall events in the past 10 years. This method provides an advance prediction of the potential geo-hazards for a large area using the future rainfall forecast. © 2021, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169475
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen University Town, Xili, Shenzhen 518055, China; School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation:
Xing X.,Wu C.,Li J.,et al. Susceptibility assessment for rainfall-induced landslides using a revised logistic regression method[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,106(1)