DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04464-0
论文题名: Estimation of spatial extreme sea levels in Xiamen seas by the quadrature JPM-OS method
作者: Yin K. ; Xu S. ; Zhu X. ; Huang W. ; Liu S.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 106, 期: 1 起始页码: 327
结束页码: 348
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Extreme sea level
; Hydrodynamic model
; Quadrature JPM-OS
; Spatial variability
; Xiamen seas
英文关键词: extreme event
; hydrodynamics
; mesoscale meteorology
; Monte Carlo analysis
; numerical model
; probability
; sea level change
; spatial analysis
; spatial variation
; typhoon
; China
; Fujian
; Xiamen
英文摘要: Continuing to enhance the understanding of occurrence probabilities of spatial extreme sea levels is a fundamental requirement of coastal hazard mitigation and prevention. To estimate spatial extreme sea levels in Xiamen seas, a hydrodynamic model capable of simulating storm surge was utilized. The applicability of this modeling approach to Xiamen seas was verified in view of a series of validations. A typhoon probabilistic model was emerged to generate synthetic typhoons governing the extreme sea levels. On the basis of the typical track shapes, a complete synthetic typhoon history was developed, while the astronomical tide was taken into account based on the Monte Carlo method. Simulation investigations driven by generated typhoons and corresponding astronomic tides were then conducted. Through simulation, 100 year and 200 year sea levels at Xiamen station were predicted to be 7.80 m and 7.93 m (Xiamen datum), respectively. Comparisons with the results issued by the Xiamen municipal bureau of water resources indicated that the quadrature JPM-OS approach can be applied to predict extreme sea levels during typhoons in Xiamen seas. Furthermore, 100 year and 200 year sea levels in Xiamen seas were determined. The results of this study also confirmed the existence of apparent spatial variation of extreme sea levels, which is likely to be related to the concavity of coastlines as well as islands and the topography. Estimating the spatial extreme sea levels provide clearer insight into different levels of flooding hazards in the study area, which is of great benefit to the design of coastal hazard mitigation and prevention plans. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169492
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Port, Waterway and Coastal Engineering, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, 211189, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Florida State University Tallahassee, Tallahassee, FL 32310, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yin K.,Xu S.,Zhu X.,et al. Estimation of spatial extreme sea levels in Xiamen seas by the quadrature JPM-OS method[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,106(1)