DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04829-z
论文题名: Tectonics-based shallow earthquake forecast of Taiwan Island
作者: Zheng G. ; Geng J.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Information score
; Seismic hazard
; Shallow earthquake forecast
; Taiwan Island
; Tectonics-based
英文摘要: Frequent earthquakes have brought enormous life and property losses to Taiwan Island, and thus reliable earthquake forecasts are valuable. We form 20 tectonics-based shallow earthquake forecasts of Taiwan Island for the years 2019 and after, each with a different threshold moment magnitude, ranging from 5.45 in steps of 0.05 up to 6.40. Our results suggest that Taiwan Island may experience about 25 Mw ≥ 6.25, 40 Mw ≥ 6.00, 65 Mw ≥ 5.75 and 106 Mw ≥ 5.50 shallow earthquakes every 100 years. We demonstrate the consistency between the forecast results and the seismic catalog used for the forecasts and carry out retrospective tests against the seismic catalogs of Taiwan Island not used in the forecasts, which show higher forecast success relative to previous studies of global earthquake forecasts. We identify three gaps of Mw ≥ 6.40 shallow earthquakes, located in Yilan County, Hualien County and Taitung County. We find a general negative correlation between our Mw ≥ 6.40 shallow earthquake forecast and the population density distribution in Taiwan Island. However, we emphasize that the regions with relatively low forecast values need special attention, because these regions generally have relatively high population densities but may also experience strong earthquakes. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169522
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: GNSS Research Center, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China; Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China; Hubei Subsurface Multi-Scale Imaging Key Laboratory, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
Recommended Citation:
Zheng G.,Geng J.. Tectonics-based shallow earthquake forecast of Taiwan Island[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01