DOI: 10.1038/s41561-020-0576-3
论文题名: Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature variability shaped by regional warming patterns
作者: Tamarin-Brodsky T. ; Hodges K. ; Hoskins B.J. ; Shepherd T.G.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2020
卷: 13, 期: 6 起始页码: 414
结束页码: 421
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air temperature
; climate change
; CMIP
; global warming
; Northern Hemisphere
; regional climate
; temperature anomaly
; temperature gradient
英文摘要: Global warming involves changes not only in the mean atmospheric temperature, but also in its variability and extremes. Here, we use a feature-tracking technique to investigate the dynamical contribution to temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in climate-change simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a simple theory to explain how temperature variance and skewness changes are generated dynamically from mean temperature gradient changes, and demonstrate the crucial role of regional warming patterns in shaping the distinct response of cold and warm anomalies. We also show that skewness changes must be taken into account, in addition to variance changes, to correctly capture the projected temperature variability response. Our findings suggest that the world may experience not only a warmer mean climate in the coming decades, but also changes in the likelihood of temperature anomalies within that climate. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169688
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Tamarin-Brodsky T.,Hodges K.,Hoskins B.J.,et al. Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature variability shaped by regional warming patterns[J]. Nature Geoscience,2020-01-01,13(6)