DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00695-3
论文题名: Projections of tropical heat stress constrained by atmospheric dynamics
作者: Zhang Y. ; Held I. ; Fueglistaler S.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2021
卷: 14, 期: 3 起始页码: 133
结束页码: 137
语种: 英语
英文关键词: adaptive management
; atmospheric dynamics
; extreme event
; global climate
; global warming
; health impact
; humidity
; tropical environment
英文摘要: Extreme heat under global warming is a concerning issue for the growing tropical population. However, model projections of extreme temperatures, a widely used metric for extreme heat, are uncertain on regional scales. In addition, humidity needs to be taken into account to estimate the health impact of extreme heat. Here we show that an integrated temperature–humidity metric for the health impact of heat, namely, the extreme wet-bulb temperature (TW), is controlled by established atmospheric dynamics and thus can be robustly projected on regional scales. For each 1 °C of tropical mean warming, global climate models project extreme TW (the annual maximum of daily mean or 3-hourly values) to increase roughly uniformly between 20° S and 20° N latitude by about 1 °C. This projection is consistent with theoretical expectation based on tropical atmospheric dynamics, and observations over the past 40 years, which gives confidence to the model projection. For a 1.5 °C warmer world, the probable (66% confidence interval) increase of regional extreme TW is projected to be 1.33–1.49 °C, whereas the uncertainty of projected extreme temperatures is 3.7 times as large. These results suggest that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will prevent most of the tropics from reaching a TW of 35 °C, the limit of human adaptation. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169836
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhang Y.,Held I.,Fueglistaler S.. Projections of tropical heat stress constrained by atmospheric dynamics[J]. Nature Geoscience,2021-01-01,14(3)