DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043
论文题名: Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the “Diamond Princess”
作者: Liu F. ; Li X. ; Zhu G.
刊名: Science Bulletin
ISSN: 20959273
出版年: 2020
卷: 65, 期: 15 起始页码: 1297
结束页码: 1305
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Airborne spread
; Chain-binomial model
; Contact network model
; Small-world
; The basic reproductive number R0
; Transmissibility
英文关键词: Bayesian networks
; Epidemiology
; Inference engines
; Ships
; Uncertainty analysis
; Viruses
; Basic reproductive number
; Bayesian inference
; Compartmental model
; Control and prevention
; Ensemble simulation
; Metropolis-Hastings samplings
; Model parameters
; Prevention measures
; Risk assessment
英文摘要: Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility t was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number R0 was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The t and R0 decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings. © 2020 Science China Press Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169983
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China; National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
Recommended Citation:
Liu F.,Li X.,Zhu G.. Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the “Diamond Princess”[J]. Science Bulletin,2020-01-01,65(15)