DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2021.05.009
论文题名: Aerosol as a critical factor causing forecast biases of air temperature in global numerical weather prediction models
作者: Huang X. ; Ding A.
刊名: Science Bulletin
ISSN: 20959273
出版年: 2021
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Aerosol–cloud interactions
; Aerosol–radiation interactions
; Atmospheric aerosol
; Temperature forecast errors
; Weather prediction
英文摘要: Weather prediction is essential to the daily life of human beings. Current numerical weather prediction models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS) are still subject to substantial forecast biases and rarely consider the impact of atmospheric aerosol, despite the consensus that aerosol is one of the most important sources of uncertainty in the climate system. Here we demonstrate that atmospheric aerosol is one of the important drivers biasing daily temperature prediction. By comparing observations and the GFS prediction, we find that the monthly-averaged bias in the 24-h temperature forecast varies between ± 1.5 °C in regions influenced by atmospheric aerosol. The biases depend on the properties of aerosol, the underlying land surface, and aerosol–cloud interactions over oceans. It is also revealed that forecast errors are rapidly magnified over time in regions featuring high aerosol loadings. Our study provides direct “observational” evidence of aerosol's impacts on daily weather forecast, and bridges the gaps between the weather forecast and climate science regarding the understanding of the impact of atmospheric aerosol. © 2021 Science China Press Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/170281
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China; Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Nanjing, 210023, China
Recommended Citation:
Huang X.,Ding A.. Aerosol as a critical factor causing forecast biases of air temperature in global numerical weather prediction models[J]. Science Bulletin,2021-01-01