| DOI: | 10.1016/j.scib.2020.12.020
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| 论文题名: | A theoretical exploration of the origin and early evolution of a pandemic |
| 作者: | Ruan Y.; Wen H.; He X.; Wu C.-I.
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| 刊名: | Science Bulletin
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| ISSN: | 20959273
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| 出版年: | 2021
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| 卷: | 66, 期:10 | | 起始页码: | 1022
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| 结束页码: | 1029
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文关键词: | COVID-19
; Epidemics
; Herd immunity
; Origin
; SARS-CoV-2
; Viral invasion
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| 英文关键词: | Animals
; Viruses
; Current modeling
; Herd immunities
; Human conditions
; Human population
; Low density
; Natural selection
; Spread outs
; Wild animals
; Diseases
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| 英文摘要: | A virus that can cause a global pandemic must be highly adaptive to human conditions. Such adaptation is not likely to have emerged suddenly but, instead, may have evolved step by step with each step favored by natural selection. It is thus necessary to develop a theory about the origin in order to guide the search. Here, we propose such a model whereby evolution occurs in both the virus and the hosts (where the evolution is somatic; i.e., in the immune system). The hosts comprise three groups – the wild animal hosts, the nearby human population, and farther-away human populations. The theory suggests that the conditions under which the pandemic has initially evolved are: (i) an abundance of wild animals in the place of origin (PL0); (ii) a nearby human population of low density; (iii) frequent and long-term animal-human contacts to permit step-by-step evolution; and (iv) a level of herd immunity in the animal and human hosts. In this model, the evolving virus may have regularly spread out of PL0 although such invasions often fail, leaving sporadic cases of early infections. The place of the first epidemic (PL1), where humans are immunologically naïve to the virus, is likely a distance away from PL0. Finally, this current model is only a first attempt and more theoretical models can be expected to guide the search for the origin of SARS-CoV-2. © 2020 Science China Press |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/170378
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Ruan Y.,Wen H.,He X.,et al. A theoretical exploration of the origin and early evolution of a pandemic[J]. Science Bulletin,2021-01-01,66(10)
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