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globalchange > 过去全球变化的重建

DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0100852
论文题名:	Avoided Heat-Related Mortality through Climate Adaptation Strategies in Three US Cities
作者:	Brian Stone Jr; Jason Vargo; Peng Liu; Dana Habeeb; Anthony DeLucia; Marcus Trail; Yongtao Hu; Armistead Russell
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2014
发表日期:	2014-6-25
卷:	9, 期:6
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Albedo ; Death rates ; Seasons ; Climate change ; Grasses ; Census ; Climate modeling ; Urban environments
英文摘要:	Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1) climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2) local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0100852&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/17803
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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File Name/ File Size	Content Type	Version	Access	License
10.1371journal.pone.0100852.PDF（1086KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

School of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America;Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America;School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America;School of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America;Quillen College of Medicine, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, Tennessee, United States of America;School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America;School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America;School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America

Recommended Citation:

Brian Stone Jr,Jason Vargo,Peng Liu,et al. Avoided Heat-Related Mortality through Climate Adaptation Strategies in Three US Cities[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(6)

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