globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0101302
论文题名:
Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change
作者: William B. Monahan; Nicholas A. Fisichelli
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2014
发表日期: 2014-7-2
卷: 9, 期:7
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Clouds ; Natural resources ; Rain ; Vapor pressure ; Statistical distributions ; Global change ecology ; Spatial and landscape ecology
英文摘要: US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5th percentile or >95th percentile) climates relative to their 1901–2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0101302&type=printable
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/17975
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship & Science, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America;National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship & Science, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America

Recommended Citation:
William B. Monahan,Nicholas A. Fisichelli. Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(7)
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