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globalchange > 过去全球变化的重建

DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0113439
论文题名:	Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship: A Fractional Cointegration Approach
作者:	Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària; David R. Heres; L. Catalina Martínez-Hernández
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2014
发表日期:	2014-11-26
卷:	9, 期:11
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Sea ice ; Test statistics ; Instrumental variable analysis ; Melting ; Ocean temperature ; Sea level change ; Coastal ecosystems ; Oceans
英文摘要:	Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0113439&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/18030
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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File Name/ File Size	Content Type	Version	Access	License
journal.pone.0113439.PDF（613KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

División de Economía, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE), Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico;División de Economía, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE), Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico;Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany

Recommended Citation:

Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària,David R. Heres,L. Catalina Martínez-Hernández. Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship: A Fractional Cointegration Approach[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(11)

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