globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0110219
论文题名:
No Evidence of the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Annual Occurrence of Four Groups of Ectothermic Species
作者: Agnieszka H. Malinowska; Arco J. van Strien; Jana Verboom; Michiel F. WallisdeVries; Paul Opdam
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2014
发表日期: 2014-10-17
卷: 9, 期:10
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Species colonization ; Climate change ; Moths and butterflies ; Weather ; Species extinction ; Summer ; Spring ; Body temperature
英文摘要: Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics) across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i) trends in distribution patterns, (ii) the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii) the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity), or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat). Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0110219&type=printable
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/18047
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Spatial Planning Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands;Statistics Netherlands, The Hague, the Netherlands;Policy and Biodiversity Group, ALTERRA Wageningen UR, Wageningen, the Netherlands;De Vlinderstichting/Dutch Butterfly Conservation, Wageningen, the Netherlands;Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands;Spatial Planning Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands;Nature and Society Group, ALTERRA Wageningen UR, Wageningen, the Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Agnieszka H. Malinowska,Arco J. van Strien,Jana Verboom,et al. No Evidence of the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Annual Occurrence of Four Groups of Ectothermic Species[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(10)
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