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DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0096523
论文题名:	Apparent Strength Conceals Instability in a Model for the Collapse of Historical States
作者:	Daniel John Lawson; Neeraj Oak
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2014
发表日期:	2014-5-8
卷:	9, 期:5
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Game theory ; Decision making ; Economic history ; Civil war ; Climate change ; Power distribution ; War and civil unrest ; Historical geography
英文摘要:	An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We examine political disintegration across eras, cultures and geographical scale to form a simple hypothesis that can be expressed verbally yet formulated mathematically. Factions within a state make choices described by game-theory about whether to accept the political status quo, or to attempt to better their circumstances through costly rebellion. In lieu of precise data we verify our model using sensitivity analysis. We find that a small amount of dissatisfaction is typically harmless to the state, but can trigger sudden collapse when there is a sufficient buildup of political inequality. Contrary to intuition, a state is predicted to be least stable when its leadership is at the height of its political power and thus most able to exert its influence through external warfare, lavish expense or autocratic decree.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0096523&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/19597
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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File Name/ File Size	Content Type	Version	Access	License
journal.pone.0096523.PDF（1162KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

Heilbronn Institute, School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom;Bristol Centre for Complexity Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:

Daniel John Lawson,Neeraj Oak. Apparent Strength Conceals Instability in a Model for the Collapse of Historical States[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(5)

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