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globalchange > 过去全球变化的重建

DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0089131
论文题名:	A Mixed Modeling Approach to Predict the Effect of Environmental Modification on Species Distributions
作者:	Francesco Cozzoli; Menno Eelkema; Tjeerd J. Bouma; Tom Ysebaert; Vincent Escaravage; Peter M. J. Herman
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2014
发表日期:	2014-2-26
卷:	9, 期:2
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Biomass (ecology) ; Sediment ; Hydrodynamics ; Ecological niches ; Theoretical ecology ; Ecosystems ; Habitats ; Conservation science
英文摘要:	Human infrastructures can modify ecosystems, thereby affecting the occurrence and spatial distribution of organisms, as well as ecosystem functionality. Sustainable development requires the ability to predict responses of species to anthropogenic pressures. We investigated the large scale, long term effect of important human alterations of benthic habitats with an integrated approach combining engineering and ecological modelling. We focused our analysis on the Oosterschelde basin (The Netherlands), which was partially embanked by a storm surge barrier (Oosterscheldekering, 1986). We made use of 1) a prognostic (numerical) environmental (hydrodynamic) model and 2) a novel application of quantile regression to Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to simulate both the realized and potential (habitat suitability) abundance of four macrozoobenthic species: Scoloplos armiger, Peringia ulvae, Cerastoderma edule and Lanice conchilega. The analysis shows that part of the fluctuations in macrozoobenthic biomass stocks during the last decades is related to the effect of the coastal defense infrastructures on the basin morphology and hydrodynamics. The methodological framework we propose is particularly suitable for the analysis of large abundance datasets combined with high-resolution environmental data. Our analysis provides useful information on future changes in ecosystem functionality induced by human activities.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0089131&type=printable
Citation statistics:	被引频次[WOS]:20 [查看WOS记录] [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/19669
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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journal.pone.0089131.PDF（2665KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

Spatial Ecology Department, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands;Hydraulic Engineering Department, Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Delft, The Netherlands;Spatial Ecology Department, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands;Spatial Ecology Department, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands;Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies, Wageningen University, Yerseke, The Netherlands;Monitor Taskforce, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands;Spatial Ecology Department, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands

Recommended Citation:

Francesco Cozzoli,Menno Eelkema,Tjeerd J. Bouma,et al. A Mixed Modeling Approach to Predict the Effect of Environmental Modification on Species Distributions[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(2)

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