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globalchange > 过去全球变化的重建

DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0119253
论文题名:	Importance of Long-Term Cycles for Predicting Water Level Dynamics in Natural Lakes
作者:	Jorge García Molinos; Mafalda Viana; Michael Brennan; Ian Donohue
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2015
发表日期:	2015-3-10
卷:	10, 期:3
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Lakes ; Surface water ; Water resources ; Fresh water ; Seasons ; Ecosystems ; Limnetic ecosystems ; Water quality
英文摘要:	Lakes are disproportionately important ecosystems for humanity, containing 77% of the liquid surface freshwater on Earth and comprising key contributors to global biodiversity. With an ever-growing human demand for water and increasing climate uncertainty, there is pressing need for improved understanding of the underlying patterns of natural variability of water resources and consideration of their implications for water resource management and conservation. Here we use Bayesian harmonic regression models to characterise water level dynamics and study the influence of cyclic components in confounding estimation of long-term directional trends in water levels in natural Irish lakes. We found that the lakes were characterised by a common and well-defined annual seasonality and several inter-annual and inter-decadal cycles with strong transient behaviour over time. Importantly, failing to account for the longer-term cyclic components produced a significant overall underestimation of the trend effect. Our findings demonstrate the importance of contextualising lake water resource management to the specific physical setting of lakes.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0119253&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/20313
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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File Name/ File Size	Content Type	Version	Access	License
journal.pone.0119253.PDF（573KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

School of Natural Sciences, Department of Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland;Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan;School of Natural Sciences, Department of Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland;School of Natural Sciences, Department of Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland;School of Natural Sciences, Department of Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland;Trinity Centre for Biodiversity Research, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

Recommended Citation:

Jorge García Molinos,Mafalda Viana,Michael Brennan,et al. Importance of Long-Term Cycles for Predicting Water Level Dynamics in Natural Lakes[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(3)

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