China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.
Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America;Department of Statistics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America;Division of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America;Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America;Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, China;Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;Department of Statistics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America;Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Yuntao Bai,Zhiguang Xu,Bo Lu,et al. Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997–2008[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(7)