globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0117174
论文题名:
The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity
作者: Matthieu Cristelli; Andrea Tacchella; Luciano Pietronero
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-2-11
卷: 10, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Dynamical systems ; Economics ; Economic growth ; Forecasting ; Meteorology ; Economic analysis ; Atmospheric dynamics ; Evolutionary systematics
英文摘要: What will be the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or the competitiveness of China, United States, and Vietnam in the next 3, 5 or 10 years? Despite this kind of questions has a large societal impact and an extreme value for economic policy making, providing a scientific basis for economic predictability is still a very challenging problem. Recent results of a new branch—Economic Complexity—have set the basis for a framework to approach such a challenge and to provide new perspectives to cast economic prediction into the conceptual scheme of forecasting the evolution of a dynamical system as in the case of weather dynamics. We argue that a recently introduced non-monetary metrics for country competitiveness (fitness) allows for quantifying the hidden growth potential of countries by the means of the comparison of this measure for intangible assets with monetary figures, such as GDP per capita. This comparison defines the fitness-income plane where we observe that country dynamics presents strongly heterogeneous patterns of evolution. The flow in some zones is found to be laminar while in others a chaotic behavior is instead observed. These two regimes correspond to very different predictability features for the evolution of countries: in the former regime, we find strong predictable pattern while the latter scenario exhibits a very low predictability. In such a framework, regressions, the usual tool used in economics, are no more the appropriate strategy to deal with such a heterogeneous scenario and new concepts, borrowed from dynamical systems theory, are mandatory. We therefore propose a data-driven method—the selective predictability scheme—in which we adopt a strategy similar to the methods of analogues, firstly introduced by Lorenz, to assess future evolution of countries.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117174&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/20982
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:
File Name/ File Size Content Type Version Access License
journal.pone.0117174.PDF(3796KB)期刊论文作者接受稿开放获取View Download

作者单位: ISC-CNR, Institute for Complex Systems, Rome, Italy;Physics Department, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy;ISC-CNR, Institute for Complex Systems, Rome, Italy;Physics Department, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy;ISC-CNR, Institute for Complex Systems, Rome, Italy;Physics Department, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy;London Institute for Mathematical Sciences, London, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Matthieu Cristelli,Andrea Tacchella,Luciano Pietronero. The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(2)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Matthieu Cristelli]'s Articles
[Andrea Tacchella]'s Articles
[Luciano Pietronero]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Matthieu Cristelli]'s Articles
[Andrea Tacchella]'s Articles
[Luciano Pietronero]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Matthieu Cristelli]‘s Articles
[Andrea Tacchella]‘s Articles
[Luciano Pietronero]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
文件名: journal.pone.0117174.PDF
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.