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DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0128813
论文题名:	Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia
作者:	Michael P. Strager; Jacquelyn M. Strager; Jeffrey S. Evans; Judy K. Dunscomb; Brad J. Kreps; Aaron E. Maxwell
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2015
发表日期:	2015-6-19
卷:	10, 期:6
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Coal ; Sulfur ; Geology ; Transportation ; West Virginia ; Illinois ; Kentucky ; Conservation biology
英文摘要:	Predicting the locations of future surface coal mining in Appalachia is challenging for a number of reasons. Economic and regulatory factors impact the coal mining industry and forecasts of future coal production do not specifically predict changes in location of future coal production. With the potential environmental impacts from surface coal mining, prediction of the location of future activity would be valuable to decision makers. The goal of this study was to provide a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents under changing economic and regulatory forecasts through the year 2035. This was accomplished by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to predict (1 km2) gridded cell size land cover change. Combining these two inputs was possible with a ratio which linked coal extraction quantities to a unit area extent. The result was a spatial distribution of probabilities allocated over forecasted demand for the Appalachian region including northern, central, southern, and eastern Illinois coal regions. The results can be used to better plan for land use alterations and potential cumulative impacts.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0128813&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/21210
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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journal.pone.0128813.PDF（14253KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

Division of Resource Management, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, United States of America;Natural Resource Analysis Center, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, United States of America;The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, Colorado, and Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, United States of America;The Nature Conservancy, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America;The Nature Conservancy, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America;Alderson Broaddus University, Philippi, West Virginia, United States of America

Recommended Citation:

Michael P. Strager,Jacquelyn M. Strager,Jeffrey S. Evans,et al. Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(6)

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