globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0116725
论文题名:
Incidence, Carriage and Case-Carrier Ratios for Meningococcal Meningitis in the African Meningitis Belt: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
作者: Thibaut Koutangni; Halima Boubacar Maïnassara; Judith E. Mueller
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-2-6
卷: 10, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Meningitis ; Infectious disease epidemiology ; Seasons ; Epidemiology ; Meta-analysis ; Bacterial meningitis ; Meningococcal disease ; Vaccination and immunization
英文摘要: Background To facilitate the interpretation of meningococcal meningitis epidemiology in the “African meningitis belt”, we aimed at obtaining serogroup-specific pooled estimates of incidence, carriage and case-carrier ratios for meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt and describe their variations across the endemic, hyperendemic and epidemic context. Methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting serogroup-specific meningococcal meningitis monthly incidence and carriage in the same population and time period. Epidemiological contexts were defined as endemic (wet season, no epidemic), hyperendemic (dry season, no epidemic), and epidemic (dry season, epidemic). Findings Eight studies reporting a total of eighty pairs of serogroup-specific meningococcal meningitis incidence and carriage estimates were included in this review. For serogroup A, changes associated with the transition from endemic to hyperendemic incidence and from hyperendemic to epidemic incidence were 15-fold and 120-fold respectively. Changes in carriage prevalence associated with both transitions were 1-fold and 30-fold respectively. 
For serogroup W and X, the transition from endemic to hyperendemic incidence involved a 4-fold and 1•1-fold increase respectively. Increases in carriage prevalence for the later transition were 7-fold and 1•7-fold respectively. No data were available for the hyperendemic-epidemic transition for these serogroups. Our findings suggested that the regular seasonal variation in serogroup A meningococcal meningitis incidence between the rainy and the dry season could be mainly driven by seasonal change in the ratio of clinical cases to subclinical infections. In contrast appearance of epidemic incidences is related to a substantial increase in transmission and colonisation and to lesser extent with changes in the case-carrier ratio. Conclusion Seasonal change in the rate of progression to disease given carriage together with variations in frequency of carriage transmission should be considered in models attempting to capture the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis and mainly to predict meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0116725&type=printable
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/21438
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: EHESP French School of Public Health, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Rennes, France;Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France;Centre de Recherche Médicale et Sanitaire (CERMES), Niamey, Niger;EHESP French School of Public Health, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Rennes, France;Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France

Recommended Citation:
Thibaut Koutangni,Halima Boubacar Maïnassara,Judith E. Mueller. Incidence, Carriage and Case-Carrier Ratios for Meningococcal Meningitis in the African Meningitis Belt: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(2)
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