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DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0137779
论文题名:	Forecasting Bifurcations from Large Perturbation Recoveries in Feedback Ecosystems
作者:	Kiran D’Souza; Bogdan I. Epureanu; Mercedes Pascual
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2015
发表日期:	2015-9-10
卷:	10, 期:9
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Inertia ; Ecosystems ; Forecasting ; Grazing ; Theoretical ecology ; Ecological metrics ; Phytoplankton ; Lakes
英文摘要:	Forecasting bifurcations such as critical transitions is an active research area of relevance to the management and preservation of ecological systems. In particular, anticipating the distance to critical transitions remains a challenge, together with predicting the state of the system after these transitions are breached. In this work, a new model-less method is presented that addresses both these issues based on monitoring recoveries from large perturbations. The approach uses data from recoveries of the system from at least two separate parameter values before the critical point, to predict both the bifurcation and the post-bifurcation dynamics. The proposed method is demonstrated, and its performance evaluated under different levels of measurement noise, with two ecological models that have been used extensively in previous studies of tipping points and alternative steady states. The first one considers the dynamics of vegetation under grazing; the second, those of macrophyte and phytoplankton in shallow lakes. Applications of the method to more complex situations are discussed together with the kinds of empirical data needed for its implementation.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0137779&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/21827
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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File Name/ File Size	Content Type	Version	Access	License
journal.pone.0137779.PDF（2483KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America;Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America;Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America;Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America

Recommended Citation:

Kiran D’Souza,Bogdan I. Epureanu,Mercedes Pascual. Forecasting Bifurcations from Large Perturbation Recoveries in Feedback Ecosystems[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(9)

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