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globalchange > 过去全球变化的重建

DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0144990
论文题名:	Hitting a Moving Target: A Model for Malaria Elimination in the Presence of Population Movement
作者:	Sheetal Prakash Silal; Francesca Little; Karen Irma Barnes; Lisa Jane White
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2015
发表日期:	2015-12-21
卷:	10, 期:12
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Malaria ; Infectious disease control ; Vector-borne diseases ; South Africa ; Mozambique ; Human mobility ; Drug administration ; Drug therapy
英文摘要:	South Africa is committed to eliminating malaria with a goal of zero local transmission by 2018. Malaria elimination strategies may be unsuccessful if they focus only on vector biology, and ignore the mobility patterns of humans, particularly where the majority of infections are imported. In the first study in Mpumalanga Province in South Africa designed for this purpose, a metapopulation model is developed to assess the impact of their proposed elimination-focused policy interventions. A stochastic, non-linear, ordinary-differential equation model is fitted to malaria data from Mpumalanga and neighbouring Maputo Province in Mozambique. Further scaling-up of vector control is predicted to lead to a minimal reduction in local infections, while mass drug administration and focal screening and treatment at the Mpumalanga-Maputo border are predicted to have only a short-lived impact. Source reduction in Maputo Province is predicted to generate large reductions in local infections through stemming imported infections. The mathematical model predicts malaria elimination to be possible only when imported infections are treated before entry or eliminated at the source suggesting that a regionally focused strategy appears needed, for achieving malaria elimination in Mpumalanga and South Africa.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144990&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/22110
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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File Name/ File Size	Content Type	Version	Access	License
journal.pone.0144990.PDF（2904KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7700, South Africa;Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7700, South Africa;Division of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Observatory, 7925, South Africa;Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand;Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, Churchill Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:

Sheetal Prakash Silal,Francesca Little,Karen Irma Barnes,et al. Hitting a Moving Target: A Model for Malaria Elimination in the Presence of Population Movement[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(12)

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