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DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0123505
论文题名:	The Effects of Temperature on Political Violence: Global Evidence at the Subnational Level
作者:	Alexander Bollfrass; Andrew Shaver
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2015
发表日期:	2015-5-20
卷:	10, 期:5
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Civil war ; Agriculture ; Temperature analysis ; Africa ; Agricultural production ; Climate change ; Africans ; Agricultural economics
英文摘要:	A number of studies have demonstrated an empirical relationship between higher ambient temperatures and substate violence, which have been extrapolated to make predictions about the security implications of climate change. This literature rests on the untested assumption that the mechanism behind the temperature-conflict link is that disruption of agricultural production provokes local violence. Using a subnational-level dataset, this paper demonstrates that the relationship: (1) obtains globally, (2) exists at the substate level — provinces that experience positive temperature deviations see increased conflict; and (3) occurs even in regions without significant agricultural production. Diminished local farm output resulting from elevated temperatures is unlikely to account for the entire increase in substate violence. The findings encourage future research to identify additional mechanisms, including the possibility that a substantial portion of the variation is brought about by the well-documented direct effects of temperature on individuals' propensity for violence or through macroeconomic mechanisms such as food price shocks.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0123505&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/22270
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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File Name/ File Size	Content Type	Version	Access	License
journal.pone.0123505.PDF（793KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, U.S.A.;Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, U.S.A.

Recommended Citation:

Alexander Bollfrass,Andrew Shaver. The Effects of Temperature on Political Violence: Global Evidence at the Subnational Level[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(5)

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