globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159481
论文题名:
From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health
作者: Heino O. Fock; Gerd Kraus
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-8-10
卷: 11, 期:8
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ecosystems ; Ecosystem functioning ; Marine ecosystems ; Ecosystem modeling ; Sustainability science ; Conservation science ; Health care policy ; Marine ecology
英文摘要: Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0159481&type=printable
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/23541
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Hamburg, Germany;Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Hamburg, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Heino O. Fock,Gerd Kraus. From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health[J]. PLOS ONE,2016-01-01,11(8)
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