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DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147905
论文题名:
On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs
作者: David Robert Grimes
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-1-26
卷: 11, 期:1
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Vaccination and immunization ; Climate change ; Forensics ; Scientists ; Public and occupational health ; Deception ; Agent-based modeling ; MMR vaccine
英文摘要: Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain clandestine groups and organisations. Many of these ostensibly explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high. Efforts to convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well established. Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between reasonable and dubious assertions. In this work, we establish a simple mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy. Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs; these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants—the results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1000 agents) quickly become untenable and prone to failure. The theory presented here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be possible.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905&type=printable
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/23841
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: University of Oxford, Old Road Campus Research Building, Off Roosevelt Drive, Oxford OX3 7DQ, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
David Robert Grimes. On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs[J]. PLOS ONE,2016-01-01,11(1)
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