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globalchange > 过去全球变化的重建

DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0162140
论文题名:	The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble
作者:	James Tan; Siew Ann Cheong
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2016
发表日期:	2016-9-1
卷:	11, 期:9
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Finance ; Housing ; Skewness ; Free energy ; Monetary policy ; Statistical signal processing ; Eigenvalues ; System stability
英文摘要:	The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0162140&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/25550
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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File Name/ File Size	Content Type	Version	Access	License
journal.pone.0162140.PDF（2966KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

Interdisciplinary Graduate School, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Republic of Singapore;Complexity Institute, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Republic of Singapore;Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Republic of Singapore;Complexity Institute, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Republic of Singapore

Recommended Citation:

James Tan,Siew Ann Cheong. The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble[J]. PLOS ONE,2016-01-01,11(9)

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