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DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171778
论文题名:
Interrupted time series analysis of children’s blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York
作者: Liyang Shao; Lianjun Zhang; Zhen Zhen
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2017
发表日期: 2017-2-9
卷: 12, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Lead (element) ; Seasons ; Poisoning ; Time series analysis ; Seasonal variations ; Public and occupational health ; Regulations ; Dust
英文摘要: Children’s blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children’s blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children’s BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning prevention programs and Lead Hazard Control Program on reducing the children’s BLLs. We applied interrupted time series analysis on the monthly time series of BLLs surveillance data and used ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) models to measure the average children’s blood lead level shift and detect the seasonal pattern change. Our results showed that there were three intervention stages over the past 20 years to reduce children’s BLLs in the city of Syracuse, NY. The average of children’s BLLs was significantly decreased after the interventions, declining from 8.77μg/dL to 3.94μg/dL during1992 to 2011. The seasonal variation diminished over the past decade, but more short term influences were in the variation. The lead hazard control treatment intervention proved effective in reducing the children’s blood lead levels in Syracuse, NY. Also, the reduction of the seasonal variation of children’s BLLs reflected the impacts of the local lead-based paint mitigation program. The replacement of window and door was the major cost of lead house abatement. However, soil lead was not considered a major source of lead hazard in our analysis.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0171778&type=printable
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/25656
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Forest and Natural Resources Management, State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, New York, United States of America;Department of Forest and Natural Resources Management, State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, New York, United States of America;School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, People’s Republic of China

Recommended Citation:
Liyang Shao,Lianjun Zhang,Zhen Zhen. Interrupted time series analysis of children’s blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York[J]. PLOS ONE,2017-01-01,12(2)
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