The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990–2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management.
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;Catastrophe Research Center, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;Catastrophe Research Center, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;National Marine Hazard Mitigation Service, State Oceanic Administration People’s Republic of China, Beijing, China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;Catastrophe Research Center, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Tao Ye,Yao Wang,Zhixing Guo,et al. Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China[J]. PLOS ONE,2017-01-01,12(2)